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scenario planning

Scenario planning value becomes clear as business uncertainty grows

July 8th, 2009  |  by John Austin  |  published in scenario planning

It is useful to remember that scenario planning, when done systematically can certainly drive a strategic mindset within a company and enable informed risk management and strategic focus.
I found an interesting article in The Wall Street Journal noting how companies are once again turning their attention to scenario planning. The article describes how scenario [...]

About Black Swans and Scenario Planning – Can’t we all get along?

May 13th, 2009  |  by Bernardo Sichel  |  published in scenario planning

In a recent interview conducted by the McKinsey Quarterly with Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Taking improbable events seriously: an interview with the author of the Black Swan - Number 1, 2009) link, the author shared some less than flattering views on scenario planning and other prevalent financial and management techniques. This interview prompted a response [...]

Scenarios describing a financial meltdown from 1997

April 1st, 2009  |  by John Austin  |  published in scenario planning

Michael Mavaddat, DSI Executive Vice President, described a scenario planning project he managed from 1997 in which the client developed a scenario that describes current events with a surprising level of accuracy. They named the scenario “Global Malaise” and here is a more detailed description of the scenario.
Below is a slideshow Michael has used [...]

Anticipating the Financial Turmoil - A Scenario Planning Example

November 9th, 2008  |  by John Austin  |  published in scenario planning, strategic planning, videos

The goal of scenario planning is to better prepare your organization for future shocks. Dr. Paul Schoemaker gives an example of a DSI client who’s 2004 scenario planning exercise included a future scenario that anticipated the type of financial market turmoil we are now experiencing.
The client was a building supply company. They labeled [...]

Benefits of the Scenario Planning Process

November 6th, 2008  |  by John Austin  |  published in scenario planning, strategic planning, videos

Dr. Paul Schoemaker discusses the costs and benefits of scenario planning. As he notes, the costs can be relatively minor because scenario planning can be added into a company’s routine strategic planning process. The benefits grow as environmental uncertainty grows. Scenario planning helps executives “see around the corner”. It helps them [...]



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