4G Wireless is Coming: Are you Ready?
By
Scott Snyder, Ph.D., CEO, DSI
BACKGROUND
New advances in wireless technology, distributed computing and artificial intelligence (AI) are laying the foundation for a new world and society without wires. Wireless is no longer simply an extended communications medium, but rather a fundamental shift in how we function and interact in business and life. The next generation, sometimes referred to as “4G”, will be a continuum of interoperable, broadband, peer-to-peer, context-aware, cognitive, and user-centric networks, devices, and applications. As this technology drives deeper into the human experience, a new world begins to emerge that will challenge our own beliefs about how we interact as individuals and organizations The idea of individuals self-organizing, like a Digital Swarm, to act in a way that results in the most efficient and effective outcomes is certainly appealing. But this also raises some fundamental questions about the state of society, the economic system, and the world.. There are several practical questions about how business will be conducted and how companies will organize themselves for success in this very distributed world:
- Where will the intersections of technology and socio-political effects create tipping points for new killer applications?
- What will be the price of the information required to enable optimal decisions? Will it be at the expense of privacy or wealth?
- Will these capabilities foster a more interesting, innovative, creative society or will they dull the capacity of people to develop unique thoughts and behaviors?
- Who will monitor, organize, and control the individuals making the self-directed decisions? And how will the actions of these individuals be governed?
- Will companies become slaves to the actions of individuals that work there or will they be able to harness the power of the “intelligent mob” to unlock significant new levels of performance?
- Will large companies survive or will the business world fragment into a sea of mercenary capabilities that are bought and sold through intelligent peer-to-peer networks of powerful individuals?
HOW CAN ORGANIZATIONS POSITION FOR SUCCESS?
So how can executives anticipate and leverage the next wireless wave to their advantage? With the exception of a handful of past wireless innovators like FedEx, the US Military, and upstart models such as Helio, MeshNetworks, and Rhode Island’s Wireless Innovation Network, most organizations have failed to capture the full potential of today’s wireless networks and devices. Nearly all wireless innovation has been driven by the consumer sector. Yet we are about to see a major shift in the current wireless services model, creating disruption across the entire value chain with wireless users gaining more primary control over future services and how they deliver value. This shift will present a unique opportunity for companies with the right skills and culture to innovate and create profit opportunities around these new platforms. It will also threaten to cripple businesses that are too rigid and hierarchical to shift the power of decisions and experimentation to the edge of their business.
Furthermore, while there has been a lot written around current wireless networks (2nd and 3rd generation cellular) as well as future wireless networks (4G), the perspectives presented have been technology-centric with very little attention to the broader strategic and organizational context for businesses using these networks. There is a broad consensus that the business sector has been a laggard as a whole in adopting and leveraging wireless technology when compared to the consumer sector, where innovation runs rampant. Table 1 depicts the evolution of the technologies and business models involved.
| 1 G | Analog/Brick-like Phones; Introduced Cellular Architecture still being used today for the most part |
| 2 G | Smaller, cheaper phones and more users per cell due to digital technology; Primarily for voice with low data rate messaging |
| 3 G | Greater bandwidth to users supporting full multimedia and smartphone applications, still based on cellular layout |
| 4 G | Seamless, ad hoc, self-organizing networks with intelligent devices able to switch to the appropriate wireless service depending on application or user need |
This article provides a framework, “WiQ” (Wireless IQ), for measuring your organization’s wireless readiness and assessing the potential business impact of wireless-related social, technological, economic, and political forces in the future. Tremendous value will be created and destroyed as this new, and very chaotic unwired future unfolds. Organization’s must challenge their current mental and business models against the possible unwired future, and identify the success strategies needed to create true competitive advantages from the looming Digital Swarm.
ASSESSING YOUR NEED AND READINESS – WIRELESS IQ
Given the difficulty in predicting how this extremely dynamic area will change the way we live and work, it will be critical that companies adapt quickly to whatever future emerges. Depending on the industry and specific market environment, organizations may require different levels of wireless readiness or “WiQ” to maximize their value creation opportunity. The organization’s need for WiQ is made up of the following components:
| Wireless Disruption to Markets | The level of disruption/change advances in wireless technology, networks and applications could cause to your markets and customers (new entrants, new products/services, new customer segments, etc.) |
| Wireless Disruption to Business Operations | The level of disruption/change advances in wireless technology, networks and applications could cause to your current business operations (productivity, transaction cost, cycle times, footprint, etc) |
| Wireless Potential of Organization | Opportunity to leverage wireless to enhance your organization's overall performance (innovation, growth and efficiency) |
| Employee Demand | The percentage of employees demanding greater freedom to conduct all of their business activities wirelessly |
Based on early signs of how 4G will develop and your specific needs, organizations need several key characteristics to adapt and succeed no matter which 4G future emerges. The key elements of WiQ are:
| Wireless Savvy/Literacy | The percentage of employees that own latest generation (3G) wireless devices and subscribe to latest generation (3G) wireless services |
| Wireless Broadband Access | The penetration of wireless broadband among employees for accessing work applications |
| Wireless Innovation | The percentage of new products and services that leverage wireless as an enabler or delivery medium |
| Organizational Authority | The extent to which decision making authority in the organization is distributed (peer to peer) versus centralized (hierarchical) |
| Wireless Ecosystem | The overall percentage of employees, customers, partners, and vendors that actively connect, communicate, and transact with each other through a wireless network |
| Wireless Technology | The frequency at which wireless technology and applications are updated/refreshed with the latest versions. |
| Wireless Content | Organization content geared towards an immersive wireless experience |
| Wireless Interconnectivity | The level of seamless interconnectivity between your wireless users and your organization's other networks. |
| Wireless Mass Collaboration | The extent to which the organization uses text messaging, IM, blogs and Wikis accessed via wireless handhelds to communicate and organize initiatives |
| Wireless Social Networking | The extent to which your employees use wireless for social networking to accomplish higher level goals beyond traditional work. (relationship building, charity, entertainment, etc) |
As part of this research, a survey was conducted of over 30 executives across major industries regarding their organization’s WiQ need and readiness. The average scores for the individual components of need and readiness, rated on normalized scales from 1-7, as well as the total scores, are shown in the figures below.
Figure 1 - Average Scores of Wireless Need
Figure 2 - Average Scores of Wireless Readiness
Figure 3 - Total Score Comparison
The data shows that organizations have a significant gap between their current WiQ and what they need to succeed in an unwired future. As companies begin to realize that wireless will be a key platform for both value creation and destruction in their industries, a framework like WiQ for assessing organization capabilities will be fundamental. Industry leaders will move quickly beyond basic wireless connectivity to integrate wireless into everything they do, including improving knowledge management and their innovation processes as shown in the figure below.
Figure 4 - Leveraging Wireless Networks
How well is your organization prepared for the Digital Swarm? Much will depend on how well you anticipate and adapt to the threats and opportunities presented by the 4G Wireless Future. Assessing your organization’s WiQ is an important first step in knowing where to improve its wireless readiness.
* If you would like to benchmark your organization, contact the author for a free WiQ assessment at snyder@thinkdsi.com.
Notes
George S. Day, Ph.D. and Paul J.H. Schoemaker, Ph.D., “Avoiding the Pitfalls of Emerging Technologies,” California Management Review 42 (Winter Issue 2000): 2.
Paul J.H. Schoemaker, Ph.D., Profiting From Uncertainty: Strategies For Succeeding No Matter What The Future Brings, (New York: The Free Press, 2002).
Scott A. Snyder, Digital Swarm: Organizing for Success in the Unwired Future, (forthcoming).
