Associations, Scenarios, and Communities of Practice

By Franck Schuurmans, Ph.D., Director, Non-Profit Practices, DSI
and Eric Strang, Business Analyst, DSI

Introduction

Executives of large and small associations face an overwhelming array of challenges in the near and long term future. Serving a global audience, addressing issues of diversity and ethnicity, and supporting clients in a changing work environment, all require new skills and capabilities. Across the board, associations see a decline in dues revenue, higher expectations around quality and increasing demand for a broader array of services, products and overall support. Association leadership teams (board and management) need to operate more strategically as explained below.

To better address the complexity and uncertainty surrounding strategic choices, Decision Strategies International (DSI), in partnership with the Association Forum of Chicagoland, developed scenarios for the Future of Associations. They are intended to challenge an association's current assumptions and stress test the validity of its strategic commitments under different potential futures. We examined the external environment in which associations may operate over the next five years. To identify the major external forces, and classify them into trends and uncertainties, DSI drew from its extensive client experience with associations,¹ interviews with over a dozen industry leaders and an online survey distributed to the entire Forum membership base.

The Association Landscape

Our study revealed a number of forces impacting the future of associations. The tide of socio-demographic change is turning against them as new generations desire additional channels for delivery of a different type of message. Both existing and potential members expect instantaneous and comprehensive answers to their issues. The convergence of technology already allows for the emergence of spontaneous information hubs. Wikipedia and YouTube are two well-known examples. Consumers expect most information to be free and available through multiple, e-based learning/information exchanges. New entrants from adjacent marketplaces are potential threats as they offer the same services and products traditionally provided only by associations. These forces are causing some associations to focus on a particular niche, while driving others to look for partnerships, joint ventures and alliances to enhance their reach and content scope. Furthermore, some associations see a shift in their role toward more consulting for or with their constituents.

Future Scenarios for Associations

Our study revealed two key uncertainties as potentially most impactful in shaping alternative futures: the degree of intermediation and the amount of available funding. These two uncertainties formed the axes for the 2x2 Scenario Matrix depicted below.

Figure 1. Scenarios for Associations
[click image to enlarge]

The boundary cases within which intermediation might range go from traditional, where associations remain the gatekeepers and validators of information to Wikenomics where self-organizing organizations spontaneously pool free resources in return for access to a broad network. This may happen in the realm of information but can be expanded to certification, accreditation, and even lobbying. With minimum overhead and highly relevant subject material, these networks can provide both access to existing information as well as form a network for detecting weak signals among the random noise. Funding, the other axis, encompasses any dues, non-dues revenue, grants etc. The abundance or the scarcity of funds depend on the level of competition among overlapping associations, the purchasing power off the buyer of services (members) and the extent to which new entrants enter the market.

Depending on how each of these uncertainties plays out, different scenarios may unfold. With a traditional level of intermediation and scarce availability of funds, scenario A emerges, titled Slim Pickens. It represents a world where the demands of members are similar to those of today. Associations face increasing competitive intensity over limited resources leading many to consolidate to secure more members and funds. However, despite such efforts, many associations do not have sufficient resources to attract and retain members. With shrinking resources and members, associations face a declining ability to influence the communities they serve.

Facing a similar availability of funding, Virtuality depicts a different future (scenario B) due to a high level of intermediation. Funding for traditional activities has dried up, fostering the growth and success of the virtual space. The internet is the new medium, but because the lack of funds, not all associations can reap the rewards. Associations able to ride the new technology wave gain advantage as they are able to benefit through better content, access, and databases. However, the same technology allows services such as accreditation and certification to take place over the internet (i.e. University of Phoenix), causing some members to no longer turn to associations.

Yesteryear, scenario C, returns associations to the glory days of being esteemed network agencies, providers of education and valued lobbyists. With abundant funding and limited intermediation, members again desire to belong to a community away from a computer monitor. Associations that provide the right message for the right audience find themselves awash in resources. However even the less effective associations are able to survive.

In scenario D, named Wild Wild West, associations fall from prominence. Spontaneous networks emerge around key issues instead of silos or industries and share information in cyberspace. Associations no longer play a major role in people's lives. The observations of Tocqueville, who philosophized the love of Americans to form communities for any purpose, take on a whole new meaning in a new space and through a new medium.

Lessons from the Future

Given these four different, but plausible futures, associations need to seek robust strategies to maximize their values to members. How can associations succeed in this sea of uncertainty? Some leading associations feel the answer lies in their members and are building communities of practice, where members not only share a common concern or passion but also improve through active interactions.² Whether associations play the role of gatekeeper or aggregators, fostering communities of practice will require a shift away from narrowly focusing on say directed learning. Members gain value through reflection on practice, peer-to-peer learning, and high-value learning activities instead of more traditional course offerings and publications.

Such attempts to redefine themselves represent the drive associations need to survive. Instead of reacting to the forces as they arise and struggling to maintain influence in such changing conditions, associations should ask themselves strategic questions such as where do new growth opportunities exist? Where are the collective blind spots in the current strategy? How do we adapt our strategy to changes in the environment? The answers to these questions differ for each association, but all share the need for associations to take the first step. Associations need to be proactive by questioning the future and embracing uncertainty to best position themselves for any scenario.

Notes
¹ DSI clients in the association space include the American Association of Homes and Services for the Aging (AAHSA), the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), the Credit Union Executives Society (CUES), the Life Insurance Market Research Association (LIMRA), the American Society of Industrial Security (ASIS), the Biomedical Research and Education Foundation (BREF) and a consortium of legal service and legal technology service provider associations.
²  Etienne Wegner, http://www.ewenger.com/theory/