2015, An HR Odyssey: Imagining Four Different Futures

By Roch Parayre, Ph.D., Senior Partner, DSI

At 3:30 on a Monday morning during 2015, an urgent telephone call abruptly ends Sarah's weekend. As Executive Vice President of Human Resources for an international software developer, Sarah has long dealt with emergencies, but this particular morning puts her talent to the ultimate test. Her caller, the head of a high-profile team, informs her that three key people just jumped ship to join a major competitor. Giving but a few hours' notice, those former employees have imperiled software completion, and the team now runs the risk of failing to deliver on an important project for the firm's largest client.

Sarah's response depends on the cultural, economic, political, regulatory, social, and technological landscape she inhabits during 2015, but since her firm had earlier prepared for several contingencies and uncertainties through scenario planning, Sarah now has the capabilities and skills required to solve problems associated with scarce American talent and self-organizing firms with ad hoc networks of workers around a small core.

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Leveraging the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM)'s expertise and network of thought leaders, DSI recently participated in the development of four very different scenarios for the future of human resource management, so that HR professionals like Sarah can better envision the coming decade, including the common trends likely to unfold, the different circumstances one might encounter, and the roles HR professionals might assume to seize opportunities and to avoid the blind-siding that so many ill-prepared people and organizations endure. ¹

To construct four archetypal scenarios that not only reflect a common "day in the life" of the HR professional during 2015, but also paint the broadest array of possibilities to succeed no matter what the future might bring, the SHRM-DSI team interviewed stakeholders from both inside and outside the HR profession. We then cobbled together a list of HR's most important issues (weighted by impact and uncertainty). Ultimately, this allowed us to identify two uncertainties likely to drive the human resource function over the next ten years: availability of talent; and organizational structure. Together, these uncertainties then provided the lenses through which we explored four very different futures.

One "memory" of the future involved testing Sarah's skills as a "casting director" charged with drawing together the talent needed for a specialized project while protecting the culture of the small core organization. The remaining scenarios imagined three other human resource management futures, with a global dealmaker, caregiver, and systems integrator, respectively, taking center stage.

Figure 1 - 2 x 2 Matrix
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Although events may unfold in very different ways over the coming decade, envisioning a typical workday in four possible worlds at 2015 allows HR professionals and others to prepare now for the skills and expertise required to succeed ten years down the road. We invite you to explore a day in the life of each of our scenarios, and to learn more about the collaborative SHRM-DSI report here.

Casting Director

In this scenario, Sarah's 3 a.m. call is neither dream nor nightmare; it is a central feature of working as an HR professional in the "free-agent nation," where a strong economy at home and abroad, along with peace and prosperity throughout the world, immigration restrictions, and the retirement of many baby boomers emboldens Americans to seek lucrative, short-term work. In such an environment, flatter, networked organizations have become the norm, while technological advances support productive, distributed work. As a result, one of Sarah's key responsibilities involves locating qualified candidates no matter the day or hour of a staffing crisis.

To scour the world for the right sorts of people, Sarah spends a large portion of her time searching the company's "Talent Finder" database (a network containing thousands of potential fits, among people often working on assignment for competitors), brokering deals between prospective talent and the firm's team leaders, and selecting appropriate (and usually short-term) compensation and benefits packages.

With her first crisis of the day solved by 6 a.m., Sarah heads to the office, where she can expect to participate in a number of international video-conferences aimed at diagnosing problems and moving projects forward. During today's calls, Sarah notices that one project leader dominates conversations in ways that eliminate opportunities for others to voice their opinions and concerns. As a result, she collects some "live" but confidential data from the group, and asks them to complete a short, three-question survey. Finding that his group requires more open and honest communication, the team leader asks Sarah to sit in on the next two calls so that the group can continue to build the relationships needed to function as an effective team.

As Casting Director, Sarah knows that the firm's success depends upon her abilities to facilitate excellent group interaction among talented people hired on short-term contracts to play specific roles in projects. Since most jobs have a narrow scope, with well-defined roles and required skills, Sarah finds it relatively easy to fill vacant slots through "Talent Finder" and other networks. But with knowledge scattered throughout the company, Sarah and her HR team also need brokering skills, so that they can translate strategies and initiatives into action, identify and attract talent, and manage a series of short-term relationships and a set of core employees. Other challenges center on managing portable benefits and oversight systems to protect intellectual and other company properties.

To assist, Sarah's organization has created the agility necessary for quick responses to constant change. It has created strong legal and information systems to protect core information and to make it possible to manage or tap into sophisticated talent databases. It emphasizes skill development through training and education. And it values highly specialized staffing consultants, with an in-depth understanding of the industry, who can help to re-engineer groups and put together project teams.

Global Dealmaker

In a world where the American economy has suffered while the rest of the world booms, global out-sourcing has continued to accelerate. As a result, the center of work has shifted to emerging economies, lay-offs at home have created a surplus of American talent, and organizations have become flatter and focused on core capabilities. In such an environment, Marc, the Chief Network Resources Officer of a high-tech firm centered in the United States, knows that HR must play an increased role in providing benefits and a sense of belonging to a global workforce.

As a global dealmaker, Marc's day often begins after midnight, in far-flung corners of the world. Today is no different. Taking advantage of time-zone differences between Bangalore and the home office in Palo Alta, Marc participates in brief 1 a.m. conference call with his firm's CEO, lobbyists in the United States, and other strategists seeking to oppose yet another proposal for a new set of U.S. regulations on health and retirement benefits.

As part of a decentralized organizational structure, Marc must also deal with concerns about the quality of offshore workers assigned to his company's projects while negotiations in Bangalore and elsewhere continue to get tougher as out-sourced partners gain increased power in the relationship with his American firm. With negotiations eating up 75% of Marc's time, it becomes increasingly difficult to extract concessions on things like standards, technologies to protect intellectual property, and training initiatives to inculcate the values, culture, and operating protocol of the U.S. firm among offshore employees.

By noon, Marc has enjoyed power naps between international calls and on-site negotiations. As a result, he plans to keep his scheduled appointment for an annual physical at the local hospital, where his company has a health-care contract. Not only does he receive a thorough check-up for a fraction of the price he would have to pay at home, but his company has saved as well. Indeed, improvements in telemedicine and health-care off-shoring shaved $1 million in company overhead during last year alone, a reflection that gives Marc almost as much satisfaction as his clean bill of health.

Despite evidence of good health, however, Marc's worried. As he waits to catch yet another flight, this time to meet with other partners in Shanghai, Marc has begun to see that off-shoring may soon reach the point of diminishing returns. And when it finally does, he wonders, will American companies even know how to extricate themselves from the relationship webs now so critical to business performance and survival?

Now that small-core organizations manage relationships with major outsourcing firms, many American companies have become global networks operating within a hyper-legalistic environment. As a result, Marc and his HR team function as a United Nations, charged with pulling together the diverse cultures and expectations of a complex mix of independent companies and individuals. Although legal and market risks abound, Americans (whether living at home, or dwelling abroad as highly paid managerial ex-patriots in emerging economies) value free markets and the promise of global citizenship.

In such an environment, Marc and other HR professionals need their firms to develop alliance capabilities to manage offshore and domestic partnerships. This requires on-going education for HR and other professional staff, and hiring Marc and other nimble players who can build global teams with cross-cultural, negotiating, IP protection, and international business expertise.

Caregiver

In this scenario, rising terrorism and geopolitical turmoil have created an uncertain world. As retiring baby boomers and immigration restrictions make talent scarce, centralized corporations offer shelter from the storm, and most workers look to the hierarchical organization as central caregiver and life center. With demands for greater security on the rise, reporting requirements intensify and employers become deeply involved in the design and distribution of benefits.

As head of sales in the engineering department of a large software firms, Sam meets with co-workers in the company cafeteria for their daily breakfast rituals. Once they have completed the morning's pleasantries, Sam announces that he likens this "back to the future" world as a return to the "company store" days his father once enjoyed. Nodding in agreement, his co-workers also report that they welcome the daily recitation of the company credo at breakfast, and applaud the solidarity it fosters. They also like the fact that they do not need to mix much with the "selectees" (or senior managers), because the latter have their own dining room.

At Sam's firm, because work and personal lives constantly mingle, the legal department has established guidelines to ensure that relationships stay well within their bounds. Sam and thousands of others welcome these guidelines and the firm's clear lines of hierarchical division because both eliminate much of the backstabbing and rumor spreading that took place in the bad-old days when office politics reigned. Now, "politics" belong to the roaming HR professionals, who function like a special force of skilled and celebrated Praetorian guards.

Importantly, Sam can also concentrate on his specific tasks, for daily work assignments, company instructions, and performance targets trickle down from a hierarchy of positions and real-time monitoring systems. Although some old-timers grouse about "Big Brother," most argue that with 1984 come and gone, someone finally notices and appreciates their contribution. As a result, when Sam and his co-workers reconvene at the end of the day, usually at a neighborhood bar, their banter continues much as it did over breakfast, with work assignments and personal lives discussed in harmonious balance.

In Sam's world, although the organization has become something of a benevolent dictatorship, most workers welcome the HR department as the keeper of the corporate hearth, with its professional staff tightly controlling corporate risks, and providing the kind of security and direction American workers seek.

Those who have found themselves increasingly isolated in sprawling sub- and ex-urban developments particularly appreciate the kinds of connections and sense of belonging that the workplace brings. The most successful companies also understand that blurring lines between private and public spaces can create a highly motivated workforce.

The HR professionals at Sam's firm divide neatly into a host of categories, with some specialists focusing their days on measuring personalities, while others match teams, mentor leaders, develop the corporate university and its on-line training programs, or design and manage cost-efficient compensation and benefits packages that offer comfort to employees. Working to build a collaborative environment, these "company guards" not only foster a culture of corporate loyalty, but their moral suasion skills and paternalistic focus also helps to reduce many of the potential risks associated with security breaches and ethical violations.

At the same time, with increased competition from China and India, the need to trim costs remains a high priority. HR professionals therefore need formal training in both psychology as well as business. And, along with the company's other top talent, they must know how to employ technology to maintain a lean and efficient corporate machine while simultaneously investing in the creation of strong control systems and a collegial culture.

Systems Integrator

In our final scenario, Joy's job as Chief Human Resources Officer of a health-care equipment manufacturer intertwines with the ways in which Information Technology has maximized human-machine performance. With innovations in biological computing and robotics leading to machines that can truly replace humans for all but the most complex tasks, productivity has soared and changed the way people live. Technological advances have also stimulated massive layoffs and "jobless prosperity" in the United States and elsewhere. Unemployment pressures and interest in humanitarian efforts have also paved the way for the development of social development projects. At the same time, with HR and IT increasingly coordinated, basic global labor standards have finally emerged.

Joy now spends most of her days thinking up ways to help employees adapt to this world of rapid and sometimes dehumanizing change. While making her way to the office, on a rapid transit route that takes 45 minutes, Joy joins other commuters who have already plugged into their automated assistants. Following a quick review of her schedule for the day, Joy answers her first blackberry invitation, to participate in a call on implementing a new human-technology interface. Although the call goes well, Joy can see that machines will adapt more readily than human workers to the new system.

As an HR professional dealing with health-care issues, Joy must also meet with health-care specialists and on-staff doctors to assess global problems. On this particular morning, a crisis has emerged in one of her company's Asian operations, where a flu outbreak has wrecked havoc and triggered the company's emergency public health intervention system that connects to regional governments and public health bodies.

Having assured herself that the EPHI solution will function without her physical presence, Joy dashes to a meeting with the Corporate Culture Transition Team, an initiative she spearheaded to keep workers loyal, motivated, and productive while they adjust to rapidly changing technological and process innovations.

When Joy's day finally winds down, she returns to her office, where she can make the quick change needed before making her way to one in a series of fund-raising dinners she attends as part of her company's commitment to its partners in the non-profit sector. On this particular night, those attending the gala will celebrate the completion of a major building project to eliminate homelessness in the city. Although she eagerly anticipates the happy event, Joy must make yet another quick call before settling into her comfortable limousine seat. This final call goes out to the prototype companion robot she has employed to sit with her elderly mother.

In this scenario, although Joy can rely upon the largesse of centralized institutions and a government-sponsored, automated health-care system, her HR role has become more complicated. Many Americans now enjoy a better quality of life, but rapid change has unsettled them. As a result, Joy must deal with the escalating challenges involved in managing widespread social upheaval, a surplus workforce, high unemployment and disillusioned workers, regional and global employment regulations, reduced benefits and variable compensation, and a growing digital divide between the Have-Technophiles and the Have-Not-Luddites.

In such an environment, Joy and other HR professionals have had to acquire many new skills, including technological expertise in IT and engineering, and the psychological training and stamina required to help employees adjust to rapid and unsettling change. And companies must provide the resources necessary for humanizing an increasingly impersonal and de-humanizing world; for, indeed, with the expanding role of corporate social projects, the "human" part of human resources has become more important than at any previous time in history.

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Although none of these particular futures may come to pass as envisioned for Sarah, Marc, Sam, and Joy, scenario planning promises to ready HR professionals and their organizations to do more than anticipate trends, avoid threats, exploit opportunities, unleash innovation, and increase efficiencies. It can also provide clear insights into a successful future, where the team players we explore also learn to out-maneuver their competitors.