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In the coming years, the convergence of genomics, proteomics, stem cell research, regenerative medicine, bioinformatics, nanotechnology and other life science technologies will pose significant opportunities and challenges in every sector of society. Two years ago, the William and Phyllis Mack Center for Technological Innovation, part of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and Decision Strategies International, Inc. (DSI) embarked on an ambitious program to lay out a range of reasonable futures for biosciences. Based on numerous workshops at the Mack Center and individual interviews with over 50 leading experts from academia, government and the private sector, the report represents a truly unique undertaking. No one can reliably predict if emerging life science technologies will be wildly successful, or fall short of expectations-or whether the public will accept or reject these new scientific techniques. What we do know for certain is that multiple futures are possible. So how do we describe, anticipate and plan for these possible futures? Prof. Paul Schoemaker has led a team of management researchers from the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School, and senior consultants from Decision Strategies International (DSI), to develop four scenarios that describe the commercialization potential of emerging bioscience technologies from now until 2020 and beyond:
- WHERE'S THE BEEF?
Patients and practitioners want and need medical solutions to treat and cure disease, but science falls far short of expectations. - NEW AGE OF MEDICINE
Medical science achieves unprecedented breakthroughs that cure disease, help people live longer and ushers in a new age of personalized medicine. - MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
Genomics, stem cells and other life sciences cause much commotion but fail to achieve their early promise. Research investment dries up and remains stalemated about ethical "what ifs." - BIOSCIENCES HELD HOSTAGE
Medicine and healthcare strive to develop and commercialize embryonic stem cells, cloning, gene therapy and other technologies, but the public rejects these technologies at a deep level.
This report presents four scenarios that describe how emerging life science technologies might impact human healthcare between now and 2020. Major trends and uncertainties are identified, as well as key stakeholder groups expected to play a significant role in shaping the future. Our long-term goal is to provide decision makers in various industries with strategic insights needed to develop, commercialize and deploy emerging life science technologies. The Future of BioSciences: Four Scenarios for 2020 and Their Implications for Human Healthcare report is a rich source for scenario planning frameworks and content directly relevant to a broad range of life science companies-whether or not one has an established franchise. The Four Scenarios describe the commercialization potential of emerging bioscience technologies within a framework of potential future forces and events. Decision-makers can use the meta-scenarios articulated in this report as a starting point for crafting their own strategies for proactive and reactive response to the dynamic and competitive biosciences environment.
The report can be purchased online. If you have questions or would like more information, view the table of contents or report highlights here.