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Services for the Aging in America: Four Scenarios for the Next Decade (2002)
Fast forward to the year 2012. Imagine a prosperous United States and a relatively stable geo-political climate worldwide. Pubic health care funding reform and dramatic developments in information technology and medical research have bailed health care and aging services out of what could have been a crisis.
For someone involved in delivering services to the aging, such a scenario sounds rosy indeed. But now envision a different scenario: a poor U.S. economy has created an increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots. Medical care and services for the aging follow that same divide. Aging services providers face choices between organizational survival and being faithful to the organization's mission.
The future of services for the aging in America could unfold in dozens of ways. But how quickly or slowly might things change? And in what ways will these changes occur and interact? Our scenario planning brings you four very different views of services for the aging by 2012. We have titled the scenarios Living Desert, Great Divide, Golden Pond and New World. Each scenario - a bleak economy or a thriving one, high-tech services or high-touch - depends on these uncertainties:
Given a falling economy or a tide of medical advances, starkly different futures emerge. Each has its own story, its own direct effects on organizations and people. This book helps you become more ready to respond to each of the four scenarios.
Scenario planning has been a major focus of the American Association of Homes and Services for the Aging (AAHSA), the nation's premier association representing mission-driven and faith-based care providers. AAHSA's aim is to create the future of services for the aging. We know that the historically slow, incremental pace of change is about to shift. We know that a massive demographic shift in the next two decades will probably drive a dramatic evolution of the entire field of services to the aging.
We have used scenario planning to identify how the field may change, as well as to help prepare organizations for dealing with those changes. Rather than just summarizing mounds of data, scenario planningchallenges the prevailing mindset, and creates a sense of urgency. Scenario planning prods decision makers to consider courses of action they might otherwise ignore. Providers already understand trends and their potentialimpact. What is unique about scenario planning is its focus on the uncertainties - how they might play out and how they might influence each other over time.
If you interested in getting additional information or would like to order copies of this report, please contact:
American Association for Homes
and Services for the Aging
2519 Connecticut Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20008-1520
202-783-2242
www.aahsa.org
Fast forward to the year 2012. Imagine a prosperous United States and a relatively stable geo-political climate worldwide. Pubic health care funding reform and dramatic developments in information technology and medical research have bailed health care and aging services out of what could have been a crisis.For someone involved in delivering services to the aging, such a scenario sounds rosy indeed. But now envision a different scenario: a poor U.S. economy has created an increasing chasm between the haves and the have-nots. Medical care and services for the aging follow that same divide. Aging services providers face choices between organizational survival and being faithful to the organization's mission.
The future of services for the aging in America could unfold in dozens of ways. But how quickly or slowly might things change? And in what ways will these changes occur and interact? Our scenario planning brings you four very different views of services for the aging by 2012. We have titled the scenarios Living Desert, Great Divide, Golden Pond and New World. Each scenario - a bleak economy or a thriving one, high-tech services or high-touch - depends on these uncertainties:
- How well funded will services for the aging be and through what mechanisms?
- Will there be major advances in medical and/or information technologies to assist in care for the elderly?
Given a falling economy or a tide of medical advances, starkly different futures emerge. Each has its own story, its own direct effects on organizations and people. This book helps you become more ready to respond to each of the four scenarios.
Scenario planning has been a major focus of the American Association of Homes and Services for the Aging (AAHSA), the nation's premier association representing mission-driven and faith-based care providers. AAHSA's aim is to create the future of services for the aging. We know that the historically slow, incremental pace of change is about to shift. We know that a massive demographic shift in the next two decades will probably drive a dramatic evolution of the entire field of services to the aging.
We have used scenario planning to identify how the field may change, as well as to help prepare organizations for dealing with those changes. Rather than just summarizing mounds of data, scenario planningchallenges the prevailing mindset, and creates a sense of urgency. Scenario planning prods decision makers to consider courses of action they might otherwise ignore. Providers already understand trends and their potentialimpact. What is unique about scenario planning is its focus on the uncertainties - how they might play out and how they might influence each other over time.
If you interested in getting additional information or would like to order copies of this report, please contact:
American Association for Homes
and Services for the Aging
2519 Connecticut Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20008-1520
202-783-2242
www.aahsa.org