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Scenarios for the Future of the U.S. Electricity Grid 2025 (2009)
On September 4, 1882, Thomas Edison fired up a large generator plant at Pearl Street in downtown New York City, lighting 400 of his incandescent bulbs in office buildings and homes on the street in one of the world’s first electric grids. Over the next century, the U.S. grid spidered out to pervade every corner of the nation, driving progress and lighting cities, but increasing in complexity and fragility.
Today, the U.S. energy grid is severely strained. It is clear that over the next 25 years, the way we produce and distribute energy could be radically transformed. But how much? How fast? And in what way? The nature of that change depends upon the interaction of a complex combination of forces — including regulatory, economic, industry, consumer, and technological drivers — and how they play out.
This report, created with industry experts and diverse stakeholders, begins with an overview of the U.S. energy grid and some of the forces that will shape its future. We then consider four possible futures that could emerge in 2025. These four scenarios are bounded by two key uncertainties: 1) whether there are limited or major technological breakthroughs, and 2) whether change is primarily driven by consumers or by government. Based on different assumptions about these and other uncertainties, we visit four different worlds:
Grid stakeholders — from incumbents in power production and grid operation to new players in the market to government regulating agencies — have varying degrees of interest and influence over the grid. This study aims to provide grid stakeholders with a basis for strategic decisions as well as a tool to monitor the environment as it evolves.
Learn how DSI can leverage this report for your organization here. If you would like more information, contact DSI at info@thinkdsi.com.
On September 4, 1882, Thomas Edison fired up a large generator plant at Pearl Street in downtown New York City, lighting 400 of his incandescent bulbs in office buildings and homes on the street in one of the world’s first electric grids. Over the next century, the U.S. grid spidered out to pervade every corner of the nation, driving progress and lighting cities, but increasing in complexity and fragility.
Today, the U.S. energy grid is severely strained. It is clear that over the next 25 years, the way we produce and distribute energy could be radically transformed. But how much? How fast? And in what way? The nature of that change depends upon the interaction of a complex combination of forces — including regulatory, economic, industry, consumer, and technological drivers — and how they play out.
This report, created with industry experts and diverse stakeholders, begins with an overview of the U.S. energy grid and some of the forces that will shape its future. We then consider four possible futures that could emerge in 2025. These four scenarios are bounded by two key uncertainties: 1) whether there are limited or major technological breakthroughs, and 2) whether change is primarily driven by consumers or by government. Based on different assumptions about these and other uncertainties, we visit four different worlds:
- Scenario A: “Green is Green” sees a world of rapid technological advances and adoption of green technologies and local distribution, encouraged by high prices and regulation, leading to high defection from the grid.
- Scenario B: “The New Power Deal” is a world in which a severe environmental crisis leads to government intervention in the electrical grid, with an emphasis on non-carbon alternatives, but centralized distribution.
- Scenario C: “Boiled Frogs” sees little action by industry or government in a weak economy, despite growing environmental concerns.
- Scenario D: “Department of Homeland Energy” is a world in which terrorist attacks shut down smart grids and “distributed” distribution, leading to a case-hardened, centrally controlled grid.
Grid stakeholders — from incumbents in power production and grid operation to new players in the market to government regulating agencies — have varying degrees of interest and influence over the grid. This study aims to provide grid stakeholders with a basis for strategic decisions as well as a tool to monitor the environment as it evolves.
Learn how DSI can leverage this report for your organization here. If you would like more information, contact DSI at info@thinkdsi.com.